Posted by
AA Bruzzone on Wednesday, January 31, 2007 7:51:44 PM
SAN
FRANCISCO, Ca -- The eerie replication of the seventies continues.
With one exception. In 1976, President Nixon took his "silent majority"
and the Republican party into a dark winter. But a movement,
optimistic and hopeful, and a charismatic leader, proven and confident,
percolated in the wings. Flash forward to 2007, as the conservative
coalition collapses and engages in sectarian verbal violence, there is
no fresh, self-confident leader being groomed in the wings. No
promising large-state governor, articulate, tenacious, and cemented to
principle.
Instead,
the party's leadership has been transferred, de facto, to moderate
pragmatic leaders, each flawed, and each a blend of left and right
leanings. In other words, they're just a step away from conservative
Democrats.
In
a previous column ("After The Republican Fall", October 2006), I
envisioned what would occur following a major defeat in the November
2006 elections.
The
conservative movement and the Republican Party could have bunkered
down, cleaned up the wreck, and prepared for the next wave. There was
the another possibility I didn't discuss; the actual outcome. The
factions of the fragile conservative coalition --- like Sunnis, and
Shiites, and the rest of the cast blowing themselves up in Iraq --
have turned their minds, passions and pens on each other.
They're
inflicting serious damage. The wreck was caused by the likes of
Christian Coalition 'leader' Ralph Reed (taking six-figure checks from
high-flying lobbyist Jack Abramoff to run a phony campaign to help an
indian tribe), greedy fiscal conservatives (feasting on earmarks and
busting the federal budget driving discretionary spending up 35.8
percent), the myopic neo-conservatives like Paul Wolfowitz and Richard
Pearle (and their holy wars everywhere, all the time), and finally the
inexperience of President Bush as a wartime president. It means the
Republican Winter will be much longer than I expected. Meanwhile, the
conservative crackup is in full force.
Thirty
years ago, President Nixon left the party in shambles. Democrat Jimmy
Carter beat President Gerald Ford. But during that presidential
campaign, Ronald Reagan entered the scene. There wasn't a convention
delegate in Kansas City's Kemper Arena in 1976 who doubted that Ronald
Reagan would be back. The limp presidency of Carter set up the sequel
to the '76 campaign.
The
conservative coalition coalesced. They held hands, buried their
intellectual hatchets: Fiscal conservatives, libertarians, moral
conservatives, Christian conservatives, strong defense advocates,
anti-tax advocates, journalists, speakers and the rank and file found a
leader. Four years later, Ronald Reagan was president.
Thirty
years later, the Republican Party had the reigns and lost it. We
controlled Congress and presidency. The failure is solely ours. The
Democrats, divided and intellectually bankrupt, can share no blame for
Congress' performance or current U.S. foreign policy. It will get
worse.
In
2008, Republicans must defend 21 out of 33 contested Senate seats.
Colorado Senator Wayne Allard won't be running. Other possible
retirees include Ted Stevens of Alaska (taking with him his bridge to
no where), Senator John Warner of Virginia, and Pete Domenici of New
Mexico. Other vulnerable GOP senators include Gordon Smith of Oregon,
Norm Coleman of Minnesota, and John Sununu of New Hampshire.
Once
the primaries are over, Democrats will have fire in their belly.
Victory at all cost, whomever the nominee. So, we have the prospect of
a Democrat-controlled Congress and presidency. It couldn't come at
worse time. The country has an impending rendezvous with trillion
dollar Medicare and Social Security deficits. All the elements for the
biggest expansion of the federal government and taxes in U.S. history.
The Democrats are masters of big government and higher taxes.
American
politics is dominated not by ideas. In American politics, great ideas
are embodied in a charismatic leader. The two-party system guarantees
that a winning party is in the end no party at all; instead a united
coalition. Only a strong leader can unite a coalition. That's what
makes the conservative winter something to be feared. Until a proven
winner emerges who understands and can connect with all the factions of
the conservative movement and the Republican party, the American voters
will be in no mood to hear the themes of the last 25 years. There is
no one on the horizon. Reagan left long ago.